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Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties
- Source :
- Global Change Biology, Global Change Biology, Wiley, In press, ⟨10.1111/gcb.15659⟩, Virkkala, A-M, Aalto, J, Rogers, B M, Tagesson, T, Treat, C C, Natali, S M, Watts, J D, Potter, S, Lehtonen, A, Mauritz, M, Schuur, E A G, Kochendorfer, J, Zona, D, Oechel, W, Kobayashi, H, Humphreys, E, Goeckede, M, Iwata, H, Lafleur, P M, Euskirchen, E S, Bokhorst, S, Marushchak, M, Martikainen, P J, Elberling, B, Voigt, C, Biasi, C, Sonnentag, O, Parmentier, F-J W, Ueyama, M, Celis, G, St Loius, V L, Emmerton, C A, Peichl, M, Chi, J, Järveoja, J, Nilsson, M B, Oberbauer, S F, Torn, M S, Park, S-J, Dolman, H, Mammarella, I, Chae, N, Poyatos, R, López-Blanco, E, Røjle Christensen, T, Jung Kwon, M, Sachs, T, Holl, D & Luoto, M 2021, ' Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : regional patterns and uncertainties ', Global Change Biology, vol. 27, no. 17, pp. 4040-4059 . https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659, Global Change Biology, 27(17), 4040-4059. Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Virkkala, A M, Aalto, J, Rogers, B M, Tagesson, T, Treat, C C, Natali, S M, Watts, J D, Potter, S, Lehtonen, A, Mauritz, M, Schuur, E A G, Kochendorfer, J, Zona, D, Oechel, W, Kobayashi, H, Humphreys, E, Goeckede, M, Iwata, H, Lafleur, P M, Euskirchen, E S, Bokhorst, S, Marushchak, M, Martikainen, P J, Elberling, B, Voigt, C, Biasi, C, Sonnentag, O, Parmentier, F J W, Ueyama, M, Celis, G, St.Louis, V L, Emmerton, C A, Peichl, M, Chi, J, Järveoja, J, Nilsson, M B, Oberbauer, S F, Torn, M S, Park, S J, Dolman, H, Mammarella, I, Chae, N, Poyatos, R, López-Blanco, E, Christensen, T R, Kwon, M J, Sachs, T, Holl, D & Luoto, M 2021, ' Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties ', Global Change Biology, vol. 27, no. 17, pp. 4040-4059 . https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659, Virkkala, A-M, Aalto, J, Rogers, B M, Tagesson, T, Treat, C C, Natali, S M, Watts, J D, Potter, S, Lehtonen, A, Mauritz, M, Schuur, E A G, Kochendorfer, J, Zona, D, Oechel, W, Kobayashi, H, Humphreys, E, Goeckede, M, Iwata, H, Lafleur, P M, Euskirchen, E S, Bokhorst, S, Marushchak, M, Martikainen, P J, Elberling, B, Voigt, C, Biasi, C, Sonnentag, O, Parmentier, F-J W, Ueyama, M, Celis, G, St.Louis, V L, Emmerton, C A, Peichl, M, Chi, J, Jarveoja, J, Nilsson, M B, Oberbauer, S F, Torn, M S, Park, S-J, Dolman, H, Mammarella, I, Chae, N, Poyatos, R, Lopez-Blanco, E, Christensen, T R, Kwon, M J, Sachs, T, Holl, D & Luoto, M 2021, ' Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties ', Global change biology, vol. 27, no. 17, pp. 4040-4059 . https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659, Global Change Biology, 2021, 27 (17), pp.4040-4059. ⟨10.1111/gcb.15659⟩, EPIC3Global Change Biology, 27(17), pp. 4040-4059, ISSN: 1354-1013
- Publication Year :
- 2021
-
Abstract
- The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km2) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m−2 yr−1). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.
- Subjects :
- hiilidioksidi
0106 biological sciences
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Biome
ikirouta
NORTHERN PEATLAND
Atmospheric sciences
01 natural sciences
Carbon Dioxide/analysis
Soil
remote sensing
Arctic
SDG 13 - Climate Action
EXCHANGE
ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
General Environmental Science
ARCTIC TUNDRA
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere
arktinen alue
Global and Planetary Change
CLIMATE-CHANGE
Ecology
CARBON-DIOXIDE BALANCE
Uncertainty
CO balance
kasvihuonekaasut
BLACK SPRUCE FOREST
greenhouse gas
Terrestrial ecosystem
Seasons
Ecosystem respiration
1171 Geosciences
Eddy covariance
paikkatietoanalyysi
SOIL-MOISTURE
010603 evolutionary biology
114 Physical sciences
Environmental Chemistry
[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment
Tundra
Ecosystem
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
CO2 balance
Reproducibility of Results
ENERGY FLUXES
15. Life on land
PERMAFROST CARBON
Carbon
land
Boreal
hiilinielut
13. Climate action
GROWING-SEASON
Spatial ecology
Environmental science
Spatial variability
kaukokartoitus
empirical
permafrost
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 13541013 and 13652486
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Global Change Biology, Global Change Biology, Wiley, In press, ⟨10.1111/gcb.15659⟩, Virkkala, A-M, Aalto, J, Rogers, B M, Tagesson, T, Treat, C C, Natali, S M, Watts, J D, Potter, S, Lehtonen, A, Mauritz, M, Schuur, E A G, Kochendorfer, J, Zona, D, Oechel, W, Kobayashi, H, Humphreys, E, Goeckede, M, Iwata, H, Lafleur, P M, Euskirchen, E S, Bokhorst, S, Marushchak, M, Martikainen, P J, Elberling, B, Voigt, C, Biasi, C, Sonnentag, O, Parmentier, F-J W, Ueyama, M, Celis, G, St Loius, V L, Emmerton, C A, Peichl, M, Chi, J, Järveoja, J, Nilsson, M B, Oberbauer, S F, Torn, M S, Park, S-J, Dolman, H, Mammarella, I, Chae, N, Poyatos, R, López-Blanco, E, Røjle Christensen, T, Jung Kwon, M, Sachs, T, Holl, D & Luoto, M 2021, ' Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : regional patterns and uncertainties ', Global Change Biology, vol. 27, no. 17, pp. 4040-4059 . https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659, Global Change Biology, 27(17), 4040-4059. Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Virkkala, A M, Aalto, J, Rogers, B M, Tagesson, T, Treat, C C, Natali, S M, Watts, J D, Potter, S, Lehtonen, A, Mauritz, M, Schuur, E A G, Kochendorfer, J, Zona, D, Oechel, W, Kobayashi, H, Humphreys, E, Goeckede, M, Iwata, H, Lafleur, P M, Euskirchen, E S, Bokhorst, S, Marushchak, M, Martikainen, P J, Elberling, B, Voigt, C, Biasi, C, Sonnentag, O, Parmentier, F J W, Ueyama, M, Celis, G, St.Louis, V L, Emmerton, C A, Peichl, M, Chi, J, Järveoja, J, Nilsson, M B, Oberbauer, S F, Torn, M S, Park, S J, Dolman, H, Mammarella, I, Chae, N, Poyatos, R, López-Blanco, E, Christensen, T R, Kwon, M J, Sachs, T, Holl, D & Luoto, M 2021, ' Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties ', Global Change Biology, vol. 27, no. 17, pp. 4040-4059 . https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659, Virkkala, A-M, Aalto, J, Rogers, B M, Tagesson, T, Treat, C C, Natali, S M, Watts, J D, Potter, S, Lehtonen, A, Mauritz, M, Schuur, E A G, Kochendorfer, J, Zona, D, Oechel, W, Kobayashi, H, Humphreys, E, Goeckede, M, Iwata, H, Lafleur, P M, Euskirchen, E S, Bokhorst, S, Marushchak, M, Martikainen, P J, Elberling, B, Voigt, C, Biasi, C, Sonnentag, O, Parmentier, F-J W, Ueyama, M, Celis, G, St.Louis, V L, Emmerton, C A, Peichl, M, Chi, J, Jarveoja, J, Nilsson, M B, Oberbauer, S F, Torn, M S, Park, S-J, Dolman, H, Mammarella, I, Chae, N, Poyatos, R, Lopez-Blanco, E, Christensen, T R, Kwon, M J, Sachs, T, Holl, D & Luoto, M 2021, ' Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties ', Global change biology, vol. 27, no. 17, pp. 4040-4059 . https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659, Global Change Biology, 2021, 27 (17), pp.4040-4059. ⟨10.1111/gcb.15659⟩, EPIC3Global Change Biology, 27(17), pp. 4040-4059, ISSN: 1354-1013
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....a7e3fd03f32eb5aede3976407ffc1f15