Repudiation Risk and Restitution Costs: Toward Understanding Premiums on Insured Deposits

This paper contains a theoretical development of the relationship of CD premiums to both the risks of the CD issuer and the third party government guarantor of those deposits. The theoretical development shows that the risk of the guarantor derives from the possibility that the guarantee could be repudiated and/or the restitution of the depositor's claim could be costly. The empirical analysis of the premiums for insured CDs indicates that during the years preceding the ultimate collapse of the FSLIC, the market priced the risk of both the guarantor as well as the firm. The guarantor risk pricing was responsive to the insolvency of the guarantor, the attempts to recapitalize the guarantor and the efforts to resolve the insolvent thrifts. During this eventful time period CD premiums rose to 187 basis points and averaged 79 and 54 basis points. Copyright 1994 by Ohio State University Press.