Sistema de vigilancia de infecciones graves con potencial epidémico basado en un modelo determinístico-estocástico, el StochCum Method

Background The dynamic interactions of severe infectious diseases with epidemic potential and their hosts are complex. Therefore, it remains uncertain if a sporadic zoonosis restricted to a certain area will become a global pandemic or something in between. Objective The objective of the study was to present a surveillance system for acute severe infections with epidemic potential based on a deterministic-stochastic model, the StochCum Method. Design The StochCum Method is founded on clinical, administrative, and sociodemographic variables that provide a space/time map as a preventive warning of possible outbreaks of severe infections that can be complemented based on the sum of all the first accumulated cases. If the outbreak is happening in high-risk areas, an early warning can be elicited to activate the health response system and save time while waiting for the confirmation of symptomatic cases. Results The surveillance system was tested virtually for 1 month on admissions to the emergency room of a public hospital located in Mexico City, Mexico. It promptly identified simulated cases of acute respiratory infections with epidemic potential. Conclusions The StochCum Method proved to be a practical and useful system for conducting epidemic surveillance on a hospital network.