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Evaluating the Within-Host Dynamics of Ranavirus Infection with Mechanistic Disease Models and Experimental Data
- Source :
- Viruses, Vol 11, Iss 5, p 396 (2019), Viruses, Volume 11, Issue 5
- Publication Year :
- 2019
- Publisher :
- MDPI AG, 2019.
-
Abstract
- Mechanistic models are critical for our understanding of both within-host dynamics (i.e., pathogen population growth and immune system processes) and among-host dynamics (i.e., transmission). Rarely, however, have within-host models been synthesized with data to infer processes, validate hypotheses, or generate new theories. In this study we use mechanistic models and empirical, time-series data of viral titer to better understand the growth of ranaviruses within their amphibian hosts and the immune dynamics that limit viral replication. Specifically, we fit a suite of potential models to our data, where each model represents a hypothesis about the interactions between viral growth and immune defense. Through formal model comparison, we find a parsimonious model that captures key features of our time-series data: the viral titer rises and falls through time, likely due to an immune system response, and that the initial viral dosage affects both the peak viral titer and the timing of the peak. Importantly, our model makes several predictions, including the existence of long-term viral infections, that can be validated in future studies.
- Subjects :
- 0301 basic medicine
0106 biological sciences
Ranavirus
Bayesian inference
lcsh:QR1-502
Computational biology
Disease
Biology
010603 evolutionary biology
01 natural sciences
Article
lcsh:Microbiology
03 medical and health sciences
Immune system
Virology
Replication (statistics)
Animals
frog virus 3
Statistical hypothesis testing
030304 developmental biology
0303 health sciences
Host (biology)
Dynamics (mechanics)
Experimental data
Bayes Theorem
Models, Theoretical
biology.organism_classification
DNA Virus Infections
Disease Models, Animal
Titer
030104 developmental biology
Infectious Diseases
Viral replication
Host-Pathogen Interactions
amphibian
mathematical models
Algorithms
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 19994915
- Volume :
- 11
- Issue :
- 5
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Viruses
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....a33c407b18f06d3a7eee68c8175bd428