Assessing the accuracy of template-based structure prediction metaservers by comparison with structural genomics structures

The explosion of the size of the universe of known protein sequences has stimulated two complementary approaches to structural mapping of these sequences: theoretical structure prediction and experimental determination by structural genomics (SG). In this work, we assess the accuracy of structure prediction by two automated template-based structure prediction metaservers (genesilico.pl and bioinfo.pl) by measuring the structural similarity of the predicted models to corresponding experimental models determined a posteriori. Of 199 targets chosen from SG programs, the metaservers predicted the structures of about a fourth of them "correctly." (In this case, "correct" was defined as placing more than 70 % of the alpha carbon atoms in the model within 2 Å of the experimentally determined positions.) Almost all of the targets that could be modeled to this accuracy were those with an available template in the Protein Data Bank (PDB) with more than 25 % sequence identity. The majority of those SG targets with lower sequence identity to structures in the PDB were not predicted by the metaservers with this accuracy. We also compared metaserver results to CASP8 results, finding that the models obtained by participants in the CASP competition were significantly better than those produced by the metaservers.