3D-modelling of Lake Kivu: Horizontal and vertical flow and temperature structure under spatially variable atmospheric forcing

With the increasing extraction of methane from Lake Kivu, there is a growing need to evaluate the effect of such operations on the lake’s permanent density stratification. This requires understanding of the spatial structure and variability of flow velocities and constituents in Lake Kivu. In this study, we develop a 3D hydrodynamic model of Lake Kivu, set-up within DELFT3D at a 750 m grid spacing and forced by COSMO-CLM atmosphere model results at a 2.8 km grid spacing. Validation shows that the model correctly reproduces the generation and breakdown of the temperature stratification in the upper mixed layer and predicts flow velocity magnitudes and directions similar to measurements both at the surface and at greater depth. Analysis of currents reveals a surface current pattern with two clockwise circulations, one around the whole lake and a smaller one in the northern part, with velocities around 0.1 m/s. This pattern is consistently present over an (ensemble-)averaged day, both in the wet and in the dry season, while day-by-day variations are large. Time-averaged deep currents are found to be a few mm/s at maximum. However, the variations can be substantial, with standard deviations up to 2 cm/s for the currents at 220 m depth, attributed to internal seiches. The temperature stratification, present during the entire wet season, is found to first break down in the dry season in the southern part of the lake. This is explained by the spatial differences in the wind stress and the evaporation heat fluxes during the dry season.