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Did the Great Influenza of 1918-1920 Trigger a Reversal of the First Era of Globalization?

Authors :
Pierre L. Siklos
Source :
International Economics and Economic Policy
Publication Year :
2021
Publisher :
Elsevier BV, 2021.

Abstract

I revisit the 1918–20 pandemic and ask whether it led to a reversal in the rise of trade and financial globalization that preceded it. Using annual data for 17 countries for the 1870–1928 period, a variety of tests and techniques are used to draw some robust conclusions. Overall, the pandemic a century ago interrupted, but did not put an end, to the first globalization of the twentieth century. However, two blocs consisting of combatant and non-combatant countries, experienced significantly different consequences. Globalization was sharply curtailed for the combatant countries while there were few, if any, consequences for globalization in the non-combatant group of countries. That said, there was considerable resilience especially in trade openness among several of the combatant economies. Perhaps changes in the make-up of economic blocs, post-pandemic, is a fallout from shocks of this kind. While there are lessons for the ongoing COVID pandemics differences between the 1920s and today also play a role. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10368-021-00526-1.

Details

ISSN :
15565068
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
SSRN Electronic Journal
Accession number :
edsair.doi.dedup.....9e78d34d56b3d614e109b87dfb635cb8