Early prediction of the long term evolution of multiple sclerosis: the Bayesian Risk Estimate for Multiple Sclerosis (BREMS) score

Aim: We propose a simple tool for early prediction of unfavorable long-term evolution of multiple sclerosis (MS). Methods: A Bayesian model allowed us to calculate, within the first year of disease and for each patient, the Bayesian Risk Estimate for MS (BREMS) score that represents the risk of reaching secondary progression (SP). Results: The median BREMS were higher in 158 patients who reached SP within 10 years in comparison with 1087 progression-free patients (0.69 vs. 0.30, p