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Evaluation of the number of undiagnosed infected in an outbreak using source of infection measurements
- Source :
- Scientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021), Scientific Reports
- Publication Year :
- 2020
- Publisher :
- arXiv, 2020.
-
Abstract
- Multiple studies have been conducted to predict the impact and duration of the current COVID-19 epidemics. Most of those studies rely on parameter calibration using the published number of confirmed cases. Unfortunately, this number is usually incomplete and biased due to the lack of testing capacities, and varying testing protocols. An essential requirement for better monitoring is the evaluation of the number of undiagnosed infected individuals. This number is crucial for the determination of transmission prevention strategies and it provides statistics on the epidemic dynamics. To estimate the number of undiagnosed infected individuals, we studied the relation between the fraction of diagnosed infected out of all infected, and the fraction of infected with known contaminator out of all diagnosed infected. We simulated multiple models currently used to study the COVID-19 pandemic and computed the relation between these two fractions in all those models. Across most models currently used and for most realistic model parameters, the relation between the two fractions is consistently linear and model independent. This relation can be used to estimate the number of undiagnosed infected, with no explicit epidemiological model. We apply this method to measure the number of undiagnosed infected in Israel. Since the fraction of confirmed cases with a known source can be obtained from epidemiological investigations in any country, one can estimate the total number of infected individuals in the same country.
- Subjects :
- 0301 basic medicine
Physics - Physics and Society
Pediatrics
medicine.medical_specialty
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Epidemiology
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
Science
Epidemic dynamics
FOS: Physical sciences
Model parameters
Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph)
Biology
Undiagnosed Diseases
Article
law.invention
03 medical and health sciences
0302 clinical medicine
Multiple Models
Testing protocols
law
Statistics
Disease Transmission, Infectious
medicine
Humans
Fraction (mathematics)
030212 general & internal medicine
Statistical physics, thermodynamics and nonlinear dynamics
Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution
Models, Statistical
Multidisciplinary
business.industry
Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
COVID-19
Outbreak
Applied mathematics
Exponential models
Transmission (mechanics)
030104 developmental biology
FOS: Biological sciences
Infectious diseases
Medicine
business
Subjects
Details
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Scientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-8 (2021), Scientific Reports
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....9d5e3254695920ca8d76a618218eaca4
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2006.05194