Favoring recruitment as a conservation strategy to improve the resilience of long‐lived reptile populations: Insights from a population viability analysis

In long‐lived species, although adult survival typically has the highest elasticity, temporal variations in less canalized demographic parameters are the main drivers of population dynamics. Targeting recruitment rates may thus be the most effective strategy to manage these species. We analyzed 1,136 capture–recapture histories collected over 9 years in an isolated population of the critically endangered Lesser Antillean iguana, using a robust design Pradel model to estimate adult survival and recruitment rates. From an adult population size estimated at 928 in 2013, we found a yearly decline of 4% over the 8‐year period. As expected under the canalization hypothesis for a long‐lived species, adult survival was high and constant, with little possibility for improvement, whereas the recruitment rate varied over time and likely drove the observed population decline. We then used a prospective perturbation analysis to explore whether managing the species’ immature cohorts would at least slow the population decline. The prospective perturbation analysis suggested that a significant and sustained conservation effort would be needed to achieve a recruitment rate high enough to slow the population decline. We posit that the high recruitment rate achieved in 2014—likely due to the maintenance in 2012 of the main nesting sites used by this population—would be sufficient to slow this population's decline if it was sustained each year. Based on the results of diverse pilot studies we conducted, we identified the most likely threats targeting the eggs and immature cohorts, stressing the need to improve reproductive success and survival of immature iguanas. The threats we identified are also involved in the decline of several reptile species, and species from other taxa such as ground‐nesting birds. These findings on a little‐studied taxon provide further evidence that focusing on the immature life stages of long‐lived species can be key to their conservation.
In long‐lived species, under normal conditions, adult survival is fairly high and constant, whereas less canalized demographic traits (e.g. the recruitment rate) vary over time and drive population trajectories. We used a long‐term set of capture–recapture data collected on a population of the critically endangered Lesser Antillean iguana, and show that the current demographic parameters will lead that population to quasi‐extinction. We also predicted population trajectories under different scenarios to forecast the magnitude of conservation effort that could halt the population decline. We finally review the threats to preadult stages and proposed actions to improve recruitment rates. Our study provides further evidence, in an understudied taxon, that managing immature stages can be key to the conservation of long‐lived species.