Back to Search Start Over

The extinction time under mutational meltdown driven by high mutation rates

Authors :
Lucy Lansch‐Justen
Davide Cusseddu
Mark A. Schmitz
Claudia Bank
Source :
Lansch-Justen, Lucy; Cusseddu, Davide; Schmitz, Mark A; Bank, Claudia (2022). The extinction time under mutational meltdown driven by high mutation rates. Ecology and evolution, 12(7), e9046. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 10.1002/ece3.9046
Publication Year :
2022

Abstract

Mutational meltdown describes an eco-evolutionary process in which the accumulation of deleterious mutations causes a fitness decline that eventually leads to the extinction of a population. Possible applications of this concept include medical treatment of RNA virus infections based on mutagenic drugs that increase the mutation rate of the pathogen. To determine the usefulness and expected success of such an antiviral treatment, estimates of the expected time to mutational meltdown are necessary. Here, we compute the extinction time of a population under high mutation rates, using both analytical approaches and stochastic simulations. Extinction is the result of three consecutive processes: (a) initial accumulation of deleterious mutations due to the increased mutation pressure; (b) consecutive loss of the fittest haplotype due to Muller's ratchet; (c) rapid population decline toward extinction. We find accurate analytical results for the mean extinction time, which show that the deleterious mutation rate has the strongest effect on the extinction time. We confirm that intermediate-sized deleterious selection coefficients minimize the extinction time. Finally, our simulations show that the variation in extinction time, given a set of parameters, is surprisingly small.

Details

ISSN :
20457758
Volume :
12
Issue :
7
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
Ecology and evolution
Accession number :
edsair.doi.dedup.....9b5c80289ab97119e90a48612085fb50
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9046