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From Firm Solar Power Forecasts to Firm Solar Power Generation an Effective Path to Ultra-High Renewable Penetration a New York Case Study
- Source :
- Energies; Volume 13; Issue 17; Pages: 4489, Energies, Vol 13, Iss 4489, p 4489 (2020)
- Publication Year :
- 2020
- Publisher :
- Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, 2020.
-
Abstract
- We introduce firm solar forecasts as a strategy to operate optimally overbuilt solar power plants in conjunction with optimally sized storage systems so as to make up for any power prediction errors, and hence entirely remove load balancing uncertainty emanating from grid-connected solar fleets. A central part of this strategy is the plant overbuilding that we term implicit storage. We show that strategy, while economically justifiable on its own account, is an effective entry step to achieving least-cost ultra-high solar penetration where firm power generation will be a prerequisite. We demonstrate that in the absence of an implicit storage strategy, ultra-high solar penetration would be vastly more expensive. Using the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) as a case study, we determine current and future costs of firm forecasts for a comprehensive set of scenarios in each ISO electrical region, comparing centralized vs. decentralized production and assessing load flexibility’s impact. We simulate the growth of the strategy from firm forecast to firm power generation. We conclude that ultra-high solar penetration enabled by the present strategy, whereby solar would firmly supply the entire NYISO load, could be achieved locally at electricity production costs comparable to current NYISO wholesale market prices.
- Subjects :
- grid integration
Control and Optimization
Computer science
020209 energy
Energy Engineering and Power Technology
02 engineering and technology
lcsh:Technology
Energy storage
firm power generation
0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering
energy storage
irradiance forecasts
implicit storage
ultra-high RE penetration
Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Engineering (miscellaneous)
Solar power
Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
business.industry
lcsh:T
Settore ING-IND/11
Load balancing (electrical power)
Environmental economics
021001 nanoscience & nanotechnology
Renewable energy
Electricity generation
0210 nano-technology
business
Energy (miscellaneous)
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 19961073
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Energies; Volume 13; Issue 17; Pages: 4489
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....9a8fb2879be0b31edb598060709115f7
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.3390/en13174489