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From Firm Solar Power Forecasts to Firm Solar Power Generation an Effective Path to Ultra-High Renewable Penetration a New York Case Study

Authors :
James Schlemmer
John Dise
Marc Perez
Patrick Keelin
Agata Swierc
Richard Perez
Marco Pierro
Cristina Cornaro
Thomas E. Hoff
Source :
Energies; Volume 13; Issue 17; Pages: 4489, Energies, Vol 13, Iss 4489, p 4489 (2020)
Publication Year :
2020
Publisher :
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, 2020.

Abstract

We introduce firm solar forecasts as a strategy to operate optimally overbuilt solar power plants in conjunction with optimally sized storage systems so as to make up for any power prediction errors, and hence entirely remove load balancing uncertainty emanating from grid-connected solar fleets. A central part of this strategy is the plant overbuilding that we term implicit storage. We show that strategy, while economically justifiable on its own account, is an effective entry step to achieving least-cost ultra-high solar penetration where firm power generation will be a prerequisite. We demonstrate that in the absence of an implicit storage strategy, ultra-high solar penetration would be vastly more expensive. Using the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) as a case study, we determine current and future costs of firm forecasts for a comprehensive set of scenarios in each ISO electrical region, comparing centralized vs. decentralized production and assessing load flexibility’s impact. We simulate the growth of the strategy from firm forecast to firm power generation. We conclude that ultra-high solar penetration enabled by the present strategy, whereby solar would firmly supply the entire NYISO load, could be achieved locally at electricity production costs comparable to current NYISO wholesale market prices.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
19961073
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
Energies; Volume 13; Issue 17; Pages: 4489
Accession number :
edsair.doi.dedup.....9a8fb2879be0b31edb598060709115f7
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.3390/en13174489