Resilience of UK crop yields to changing climate extremes

Recent extreme weather events have had severe impacts on UK crop yields, and so there is concern that a greater frequency of extremes could affect crop production in a changing climate. Here we investigate potential future impacts of climate projections on wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop globally, in a temperate country with currently favourable wheat-growing conditions. Past and projected climate conditions are considered for key wheat growth stages (Foundation, Construction and Production). Historically, following the plateau of UK wheat yields since the 1990s, we find there has been a recent significant increase in wheat yield volatility, which is partially explained by seasonal metrics of temperature and precipitation, including mean, extremes, and intra-seasonal variability. Strong associations between climate and yield anomalies occur during years with cumulative climate impacts across growth stages, when climate extremes ‘escape’ the ability of farmers to adapt through agronomic means. We then analyse the latest 2.2 km UK Climate Projections for the UK’s three main wheat-growing regions. Climate projections indicate that on average across the three regions, the Foundation growth stage (broadly 1st October to 9th April) is likely to become warmer and wetter, while the Construction (10th April to 10th June) and Production (11th June to 26th July) stages are likely to become warmer and slightly drier. An analogue approach, comparing historical climate conditions with future climate projections, reveals a mixed picture of future climate conditions for UK crop yields. Projected warmer winter night temperatures are likely to prove beneficial in the Foundation stage, but concurrent increases in heavy rain may be detrimental. Similarly, warmer and drier mean conditions may enhance yields during the Production stage, but increases in high temperatures and heat variability may increase plant stress, while decreases in rainfall may also threaten adequate water supply. Since future climatic conditions are likely to move outside the historically observed range, there may be challenges for agriculture to adapt management practices to realise any potential benefits.