Temporal Variation of Soil Moisture and Its Influencing Factors in Karst Areas of Southwest China from 1982 to 2015

Climate change and human activities are two dominating factors affecting soil moisture temporal variation trends, whereas their individual contributions to soil moisture trends still remain uncertain in the karst areas of Southwest China. Based on the linear regression trend analysis, Mann–Kendall mutation detection, and residual analysis methods, we quantified the contributions of climate change and human activities to soil moisture temporal variation trends in the karst areas of Southwest China. The results showed that the soil moisture in the study area experienced a drying trend from 1982 to 2015. The mutated year was 1999, and the soil moisture decreasing trend was more evident from 2000 to 2015 than from 1982 to 1999. Human activities and climate change accounted for 59% and 41%, respectively, of soil moisture drying trends. Owing to the spatial heterogeneity of geomorphic features, the individual contributions of climate change and human activities to soil moisture trends exhibited regional differences. Although remarkable regional vegetation restoration was found since applying the Grain for Green Project, the negative impact of vegetation restoration on soil moisture cannot be neglected. This study is a quantitative analysis of the relative impacts of climate change and human activities on soil moisture trends, and our findings provide a theoretical reference for the sustainable use of soil water resources in the karst areas of Southwest China.