Development of express analysis of creditworthiness of exporting enterprises based on fuzzy logic method

The article is devoted to the development of the methodology for assessing the creditworthiness of exporting enterprises based on the fuzzy logic method. The author studies the dominant foreign methods of creditworthiness complex analysis of potential bank borrowers. On its basis the stages of rapid analysis and the basic factors determining the creditworthiness of potential borrowers of the bank, the main for which are export activity, are distinguished. These factors include: FEA factor (term of export activity, share of profit from FEA in operating profit of enterprise, dynamics of profitable activity from FEA), borrower’s reputation (quality of management), borrower's financial condition (profit activity, solvency, net cash flow), loan collateralization (type and possibility of realization of collateral, method of credit risk insurance), loan repayment ability (essential terms of the loan agreement: purpose, term, loan amount, interest rate and fees, etc.). These factors allowed to create a model, the feature of which is the use of expert and analytical information to predict the level of creditworthiness of potential bank borrowers, the main one for which is export activity. The output parameter Z obtained in the model makes it possible to assess the creditworthiness of the exporting borrower as following: H - high level of creditworthiness, A – average (acceptable) creditworthiness, L – low level of creditworthiness. The loan officers must reject the borrower’s loan application in the case of obtaining a low level of creditworthiness during the express analysis. In case of assigning an average or high level of creditworthiness, a further in-depth analysis of the borrower’s creditworthiness is required. The use of express analysis makes it possible to avoid the loss of time and other resources for a detailed analysis of the creditworthiness of potentially insolvent borrowers.