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Predicting the Potential Distribution of Polygala tenuifolia Willd. under Climate Change in China
- Source :
- PLoS ONE, PLoS ONE, Vol 11, Iss 9, p e0163718 (2016)
- Publication Year :
- 2016
- Publisher :
- Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2016.
-
Abstract
- Global warming has created opportunities and challenges for the survival and development of species. Determining how climate change may impact multiple ecosystem levels and lead to various species adaptations is necessary for both biodiversity conservation and sustainable biological resource utilization. In this study, we employed Maxent to predict changes in the habitat range and altitude of Polygala tenuifolia Willd. under current and future climate scenarios in China. Four representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) were modeled for two time periods (2050 and 2070). The model inputs included 732 presence points and nine sets of environmental variables under the current conditions and the four RCPs in 2050 and 2070. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate model performance. All of the AUCs were greater than 0.80, thereby placing these models in the "very good" category. Using a jackknife analysis, the precipitation in the warmest quarter, annual mean temperature, and altitude were found to be the top three variables that affect the range of P. tenuifolia. Additionally, we found that the predicted highly suitable habitat was in reasonable agreement with its actual distribution. Furthermore, the highly suitable habitat area was slowly reduced over time.
- Subjects :
- 0106 biological sciences
Atmospheric Science
China
Asia
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Range (biology)
Climate Change
lcsh:Medicine
Invasive Species
Climate change
Herbs
Biology
Global Warming
010603 evolutionary biology
01 natural sciences
Geographical Locations
Altitude
Species Colonization
Medicinal Plants
lcsh:Science
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Climatology
Multidisciplinary
Ecology
lcsh:R
Ecology and Environmental Sciences
Global warming
Organisms
Biology and Life Sciences
Representative Concentration Pathways
Mongolia
Plants
biology.organism_classification
Habitats
People and Places
Polygala tenuifolia
Earth Sciences
lcsh:Q
Physical geography
Climate change in China
Jackknife resampling
Research Article
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 19326203
- Volume :
- 11
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- PLOS ONE
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....9745da3a57ecdb535bc47b0e0e63755b