A sustainability-based model for dealing with the uncertainties of post-disaster temporary housing

In the aftermath of natural disasters, temporary housing (TH) needs to be provided for displaced people to mitigate human suffering. In the numerous cases in which a chosen TH strategy is unsuitable for the case-specific local conditions, the TH’s negative impacts tend to intensify, especially when decision-makers have to change their initial plan. The unsuitability of the initial plans and the resulting need to change them are usually due to the uncertainty of post-disaster conditions. As most TH provision strategies have weaknesses, the most suitable strategy will thus be the one that best matches the specific circumstances of each scenario. This paper presents a new model to determine the most appropriate strategy to minimize conflicts between local requirements and TH characteristics. The model was calibrated by analyzing the 2003 earthquake in Bam, Iran, and the 2004 earthquake and tsunami in Aceh, Indonesia.