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Estimating internationally imported cases during the early COVID-19 pandemic
- Source :
- medRxiv, article-version (status) pre, article-version (number) 2, Nature Communications, Nature Communications, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021)
- Publication Year :
- 2020
- Publisher :
- Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, 2020.
-
Abstract
- Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, predictions of international outbreaks were largely based on imported cases from Wuhan, China, potentially missing imports from other cities. We provide a method, combining daily COVID-19 prevalence and flight passenger volume, to estimate importations from 18 Chinese cities to 43 international destinations, including 26 in Africa. Global case importations from China in early January came primarily from Wuhan, but the inferred source shifted to other cities in mid-February, especially for importations to African destinations. We estimate that 10.4 (6.2 – 27.1) COVID-19 cases were imported to these African destinations, which exhibited marked variation in their magnitude and main sources of importation. We estimate that 90% of imported cases arrived between 17 January and 7 February, prior to the first case detections. Our results highlight the dynamic role of source locations, which can help focus surveillance and response efforts.<br />Sparse testing early in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic hinders estimation of the dates and origins of initial case importations. Here, the authors show that the main source of cases imported from China shifted from Wuhan to other Chinese cities by mid-February, especially for African locations.
- Subjects :
- Mainland China
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak
China
Aircraft
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Epidemiology
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
Science
prevalence
030231 tropical medicine
General Physics and Astronomy
Destinations
General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
Article
03 medical and health sciences
0302 clinical medicine
flight data
Pandemic
Health care
Computational models
Humans
travel ban
030212 general & internal medicine
Socioeconomics
Pandemics
Travel
Multidisciplinary
outbreak
Extramural
SARS-CoV-2
business.industry
Exportation
Outbreak
COVID-19
Wuhan, China, underdetection
General Chemistry
Models, Theoretical
3. Good health
Geography
Viral infection
Africa
business
Early phase
Subjects
Details
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- medRxiv, article-version (status) pre, article-version (number) 2, Nature Communications, Nature Communications, Vol 12, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2021)
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....94939d516905afa72d9e33d2fd5b9d83