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Real-Time Estimation of Rt for Supporting Public-Health Policies Against COVID-19
- Source :
- Frontiers in Public Health, Vol 8 (2020)
- Publication Year :
- 2020
- Publisher :
- Frontiers Media S.A., 2020.
-
Abstract
- Indexación Scopus In the absence of a consensus protocol to slow down the spread of SARS-CoV-2, policymakers need real-time indicators to support decisions in public health matters. The Effective Reproduction Number (Rt) represents the number of secondary infections generated per each case and can be dramatically modified by applying effective interventions. However, current methodologies to calculate Rt from data remain somewhat cumbersome, thus raising a barrier between its timely calculation and application by policymakers. In this work, we provide a simple mathematical formulation for obtaining the effective reproduction number in real-time using only and directly daily official case reports, obtained by modifying the equations describing the viral spread. We numerically explore the accuracy and limitations of the proposed methodology, which was demonstrated to provide accurate, timely, and intuitive results. We illustrate the use of our methodology to study the evolution of the pandemic in different iconic countries, and to assess the efficacy and promptness of different public health interventions. © Copyright © 2020 Contreras, Villavicencio, Medina-Ortiz, Saavedra and Olivera-Nappa. Author keywords https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.556689/full
- Subjects :
- medicine.medical_specialty
Computer science
Reproduction (economics)
Secondary infection
ARIMA
01 natural sciences
03 medical and health sciences
Epidemiologic modeling
0103 physical sciences
medicine
effective reproduction number Rt
Autoregressive integrated moving average
010306 general physics
Health policy
030304 developmental biology
Protocol (science)
public-health policies
0303 health sciences
Mathematical Modeling
SARS-CoV-2
lcsh:Public aspects of medicine
Public health
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
COVID-19
lcsh:RA1-1270
Work (electrical)
Risk analysis (engineering)
Effective reproduction number R
Public-health policies
epidemiologic modeling
Basic reproduction number
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Frontiers in Public Health, Vol 8 (2020)
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....940343acb8eac1fdd1df135d76254cf0