Back to Search
Start Over
Stratifying the potential local transmission of Zika in municipalities of Antioquia, Colombia
- Source :
- Tropical Medicine & International Health. 22:1249-1265
- Publication Year :
- 2017
- Publisher :
- Wiley, 2017.
-
Abstract
- Objective To stratify and understand the potential transmission processes of Zika virus in Colombia, in order to effectively address the efforts on surveillance and disease control. Methods We compare R0, of Zika for municipalities based on data from the regional surveillance system of Antioquia, Colombia. The basic reproduction number (R0) and its 95% confidence intervals were estimated from an SIR model with implicit vector dynamics, in terms of recovered individuals in each time unit, using an approximate solution. These parameters were estimated fitting the solution of the model to the daily cumulative frequency of each Zika case according to symptoms onset date relative to the index case reported to the local surveillance system. Results R0 was estimated for 20 municipalities with a median of 30,000 inhabitants, all located less than 2,200 m above sea level. The reported cases ranged from 17 to 347 between these municipalities within four months (January to April of 2016). The results suggest that 15 municipalities had a high transmission potential (R0>1), whereas in 5 municipalities transmission were potentially not sustaining (R01) and provide a technique to optimize surveillance and control of Zika. Health authorities should promote the collection, analysis, modeling and sharing of anonymous data onto individual cases to estimate R0. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
- Subjects :
- 0301 basic medicine
Colombia
Disease Outbreaks
law.invention
Zika virus
03 medical and health sciences
0302 clinical medicine
Aedes
law
Environmental protection
Animals
Cluster Analysis
Humans
030212 general & internal medicine
Index case
biology
Zika Virus Infection
Urban Health
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Outbreak
Zika Virus
biology.organism_classification
Confidence interval
Insect Vectors
030104 developmental biology
Infectious Diseases
Geography
Transmission (mechanics)
Population Surveillance
Parasitology
Epidemic model
Basic reproduction number
Demography
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 13602276
- Volume :
- 22
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Tropical Medicine & International Health
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....92e0f43740c47ae260c1328178fe52d3