A nomogram to predict the success rate of patients with small bowel obstruction relief by ileus tube

Purpose: This article investigated patient clinical data to establish a nomogram to predict the success rate of patients with small bowel obstruction relief by ileus tube.Methods: We identified 210 patients with small bowel obstruction treated with ileus tube (January 2014 to January 2020) from a prospectively collected database. Among them, 117 cases were successfully relieved (Successful group), and 93 cases failed (Failure group).Results: The Successful group had a higher age and body mass index, as well as a shorter time from obstruction to insertion than the failure group before insertion of the ileus tube. White blood cell, neutrophil, red blood cell distribution width and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio were lower in the successful group after insertion of the ileus tube. In addition, white blood cell, neutrophil, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio decreased in the successful group after insertion. However, the result was the opposite in the Failure group. The success rate of paralytic ileus was the highest (79.4%). Patients with fecal stone ileus had the most rapid ventilation and defecation times. Multivariate analysis showed that the platelet-change, albumin after insertion, time from obstruction to insertion and obstruction factors were independent factors influencing the success rate of ileus tube insertion. In addition, we established nomograms to predict the success rate of patients with small bowel obstruction relief by ileus tube (C-index=0.753).Conclusion: This nomogram can effectively predict whether patients can successfully relieve obstruction by ileus tube, which provides convenience for clinical treatment.