PREDICT-PD: Identifying risk of Parkinson's disease in the community: methods and baseline results

Objectives To present methods and baseline results for an online screening tool to identify increased risk for Parkinson's disease (PD) in the UK population. Methods Risk estimates for future PD were derived from the results of a systematic review of risk factors and early features of PD. Participants aged 60–80 years without PD were recruited by self-referral. They completed an online survey (including family history, non-motor symptoms and lifestyle factors), a keyboard-tapping task and the University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test. Risk scores were calculated based on survey answers. Preliminary support for the validity of this algorithm was assessed by comparing those estimated to be higher risk for PD with those at lower risk using proxies, including smell loss, REM-sleep behaviour disorder and reduced tapping speed, and by assessing associations in the whole group. Results 1324 eligible participants completed the survey and 1146 undertook the keyboard-tapping task. Smell tests were sent to 1065 participants. Comparing the 100 highest-risk participants and 100 lowest-risk participants, median University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test scores were 30/40 versus 33/40 (p