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Association between Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Epidemic and Climate Factors in Heilongjiang Province, China
- Publication Year :
- 2013
- Publisher :
- The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 2013.
-
Abstract
- The purpose of this study was to quantify the relationship between climate variation and transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Heilongjiang Province, a highly endemic area for HFRS in China. Monthly notified HFRS cases and climatic data for 2001-2009 in Heilongjiang Province were collected. Using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model, we found that relative humidity with a one-month lag (β = -0.010, P = 0.003) and a three-month lag (β = 0.008, P = 0.003), maximum temperature with a two-month lag (β = 0.082, P = 0.028), and southern oscillation index with a two-month lag (β = -0.048, P = 0.019) were significantly associated with HFRS transmission. Our study also showed that predicted values expected under the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model were highly consistent with observed values (Adjusted R(2) = 83%, root mean squared error = 108). Thus, findings may help add to the knowledge gap of the role of climate factors in HFRS transmission in China and also assist national local health authorities in the development/refinement of a better strategy to prevent HFRS transmission.
- Subjects :
- Veterinary medicine
China
Orthohantavirus
Endemic Diseases
Lag
Biology
law.invention
Climatic data
law
Virology
Humans
Autoregressive integrated moving average
Maximum temperature
Models, Statistical
Temperature
Endemic area
virus diseases
Humidity
Articles
Infectious Diseases
Transmission (mechanics)
El Niño Southern Oscillation
Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome
Parasitology
Seasons
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....8f399c0862ce97cb21d8198a1f7425c6