Transmission Dynamics of Seasonal Influenza in Abidjan: Epidemiology and Modeling

(Introduction): In the tropics, influenza age-risk groups and the temporal distribution are not as thoroughly studied. (Objective): Here we determine these aspects in Abidjan. Materials and methods: We conducted a review from INHP influenza surveillance database and climatological data from the National Weather Service from 2007 to 2012. (Results): The largest number of positive specimens was from young children aged 0-4 years. The highest monthly and seasonally proportions of influenza viruses were observed in the long rainy season. ARIMAX (2,0,0)RF perform best only with rainfall. (Conclusion): Public health measures must be strengthened at the approach of rainy seasons.