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Current and future suitability areas of kermes oak (Quercus coccifera L.) in the Levant under climate change
- Publication Year :
- 2016
- Publisher :
- Zenodo, 2016.
-
Abstract
- Al-Qaddi, N., Vessella, F., Stephan, J.et al.Current and future suitability areas of kermes oak (Quercus cocciferaL.) in the Levant under climate change.Reg Environ Change17,143–156 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-0987-2 Abstract Quercus cocciferaL. (Kermes oak) is an evergreen oak, typical of the maquis in the eastern and south-eastern part of the Mediterranean. It occurs almost continuously along the Syrian–Lebanese coast up to 1500m and is more scattered inland, up to the arid southernmost area of Petra in Jordan. Human impact and global warming both strongly affect the natural distribution of the species, thus leading to a widespread forest fragmentation in the whole region. In this study, we investigate the current bioclimatic range of Kermes oak and forecast which areas are potentially most suitable over the course of the twenty-first century. Ecological niche modelling was used to retrieve the environmental envelope of the species according to 23 topographic and climate variables. Five algorithms and three general circulation models were applied to provide the potential distribution of Kermes oak at the present time and project it to the future. Results showed a current suitability area in the Middle East extending from NW of Syria, rather continuously along the Lebanese coasts and inland up to the Mediterranean western slopes of Palestine and the Golan area (Israel), encompassing the Jordan Valley towards Dana and Wadi Rum (Jordan), with an isolated patch in Jabal Al-Arab (South Syria). Future scenarios depict a significant fragmentation and restriction of Kermes oak range, especially in the north of Syria and Golan, with a general shifting in altitude. This information may be useful in helping the foresters to cope with the challenge of climate changes by identifying the most suitable areas climatically effective for successful ecosystem restoration and management, including reforestation programmes.
- Subjects :
- 0106 biological sciences
Mediterranean climate
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Climate change
010603 evolutionary biology
01 natural sciences
Quercus coccifera
Middle East
Reforestation
Restoration ecology
Wadi
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Global and Planetary Change
geography.geographical_feature_category
Ecological niche modelling
biology
Ecology
Global warming
biology.organism_classification
Arid
Geography
Physical geography
Forest conservation
Forecasting
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....89c04459c29b0ec2ca4f80a2d860192b