Prediction of treatment outcome with daily high-dose IFN alpha-2b plus ribavirin in patients with chronic hepatitis C with genotype 1b and high HCV RNA levels: relationship of baseline viral levels and viral dynamics during and after therapy

Data on 334 patients with HCV genotype 1b and high viral levels were extracted from two multicenter double-blind studies conducted in Japan comparing IFN alpha-2b plus ribavirin (n = 209) with IFN alpha-2b alone (n = 125) for 24 weeks. HCV RNA assay was conducted before and 4, 12, and 24 weeks after the start and 4, 12, and 24 weeks after the end of treatment. Both sustained viral response (SVR) rate and relapse rate after the end of treatment were analyzed in relation to baseline viral levels and the time of first disappearance of virus. In the combination treatment group, the percentage of patients who were HCV RNA-negative within 4 weeks decreased with increase in baseline viral levels (i.e. 42%, 15%, and 11% were HCV RNA-negative in the groups exhibiting500, 500 to850, and/=850kcopies/mL, respectively). In the IFN monotherapy group, the response rates were lower at 13%, 15%, and 1%, respectively. Disappearance of virus within 12 weeks after the start of combination treatment was indicative of higher probability of SVR. The risk of relapse was more highly correlated with the timing of initial viral disappearance than with baseline HCV levels; it was 4.8 and 10.3 times higher in patients who became HCV-negative at 4-12 and 13-24 weeks compared with in those who were HCV-negative within 4 weeks.