Bayesian modelling of an absolute chronology for Egypt's 18th Dynasty by astrophysical and radiocarbon methods

Only a few astrophysical points and synchronisms listed in texts provide anchor points for the absolute chronology of Ancient Egypt. At first we will show how we can re-calculate some of these anchor points by using Sothic dating based on the arcus visionis method, and modelling lunar dates using a Bayesian approach. Then, we will discuss two radiocarbon studies carried out on short-lived Egyptian materials held at the Louvre Museum that could be attributed to particular reigns or other precise periods. Using a Bayesian approach, these dates were combined with the known order of succession and the lengths of reigns. Sothic and lunar dates were integrated as priors in the model. This approach has led to a new proposal for the absolute chronology of Egypt's 18th Dynasty.