Chile Health Manpower Study: Methods and Problems

This paper describes the principal methods used to assess future health manpower requirements in Chile and the ability of the country to meet them. The first phase of the study, completed in late 1970, represents the preparation of a dynamic model of the entire health sector. A nationwide survey of the met and unmet demand for health care of 45,000 Chileans is the starting point for estimating the possible growth of demand. Alternative hypotheses regarding the future characteristics and targets of the sector are proposed and their implications for manpower and fiscal policies analyzed. The methods used to project the possible demand for care and to convert service requirements into manpower needs are considered in some detail. Procedures used for the analysis of manpower supply are simplified to the maximum so as to not interfere with other aspects of the study. Techniques are described for assessing the potential economic burden of alternative manpower targets while at the same time minimizing the hazards of long-range projections of economic growth and costs. The paper concludes with a discussion of some of the problems faced in the Chile study.