Back to Search
Start Over
Detecting tipping points in ecological models with sensitivity analysis
- Source :
- Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena, 11(4), 47-72, ten Broeke, G A, van Voorn, G A K, Kooi, B W & Molenaar, J 2016, ' Detecting tipping points in ecological models with sensitivity analysis ', Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena, vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 47-72 . https://doi.org/10.1051/mmnp/201611405, Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena 11 (2016) 4, Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena, 11(4), 47-72. EDP Sciences
- Publication Year :
- 2016
-
Abstract
- Simulation models are commonly used to understand and predict the developmentof ecological systems, for instance to study the occurrence of tipping points and their possibleecological effects. Sensitivity analysis is a key tool in the study of model responses to change s in conditions. The applicability of available methodologies for sensitivity analysis can be problematic if tipping points are involved. In this paper we demonstrate that not considering these tipping points may result in misleading statistics on model behaviour. In turn, this limits the applicability of simulation models in ecological research. Tipping points are bestrevealed when asymptotic model behaviour is considered, i.e. by applying bifurcation analysis. Bifurcation analysis, however, is limited to deterministic dynamic models, whereas many ecological simulation models are nondeterministic and can only be analysed using sensitivity analysis methodologies. In this paper we explore the possibilities for applying methodologies of sensitivity analysis to analyse models with tipping points. The Bazykin-Berezovskaya model, a deterministic ecological model of which the structure regarding tipping points is known a priori, is used as case study. We conclude that important clues about the occurrence of tippings points can be revealed from different sensitivity analysis methodologies, if proper statistical and graphical measures are used. The results raise awareness about how tipping points affect temporal model responses in ecological simulation models, and may also be more generally applicable for nondeterministic models that cannot be analysed using bifurcation analysis.
- Subjects :
- 0106 biological sciences
Tipping point
Computer science
Ecological systems theory
010603 evolutionary biology
01 natural sciences
Wiskundige en Statistische Methoden - Biometris
Allee effect
Bifurcation analysis
Econometrics
Sensitivity (control systems)
Mathematical and Statistical Methods - Biometris
Structure (mathematical logic)
Ecology
Applied Mathematics
Simulation modeling
Tipping point (climatology)
PE&RC
010601 ecology
Nondeterministic algorithm
Biometris
Modeling and Simulation
Sampling method
Social ecological model
A priori and a posteriori
Sensitivity analysis
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 09735348
- Volume :
- 11
- Issue :
- 4
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....8545605a25e726cde4bc6b7fe9a9b49c