Use of CA-125 to predict survival of patients with ovarian carcinoma. North Thames Cooperative Group

The prognostic value of serum CA-125 measurements was assessed in 54 patients with advanced ovarian adenocarcinoma. All patients received a minimum of two courses of carboplatin as part of the North Thames Cooperative Group trial. With a minimum follow-up of 6 months, 37 patients (69%) have clinical evidence of progressive disease and 28 have died. The absolute prechemotherapy level of CA-125 was of no value in predicting which patients would develop progressive disease. However, the change in CA-125 levels from before chemotherapy to 1 month later, after one course of carboplatin, could be used to divide patients into different prognostic groups. The best discrimination was found by dividing the patients into those who showed a greater than sevenfold decrease in CA-125 levels and those who showed a smaller change. Eight of 14 (58%) patients with a greater than sevenfold decrease in CA-125 levels remain disease-free compared with three of 36 (9%) patients with a lesser fall (P = .0005). The change in CA-125 levels during the first month of chemotherapy may indicate which patients should be offered alternative or symptomatic therapy and which should continue with the currently available toxic chemotherapy.