Evaluation of the Use of UAV-Derived Vegetation Indices and Environmental Variables for Grapevine Water Status Monitoring Based on Machine Learning Algorithms and SHAP Analysis

Monitoring and management of grapevine water status (GWS) over the critical period between flowering and veraison plays a significant role in producing grapes of premium quality. Although unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) can provide efficient mapping across the entire vineyard, most commercial UAV-based multispectral sensors do not contain a shortwave infrared band, which makes the monitoring of GWS problematic. The goal of this study is to explore whether and which of the ancillary variables (vegetation characteristics, temporal trends, weather conditions, and soil/terrain data) may improve the accuracy of GWS estimation using multispectral UAV and provide insights into the contribution, in terms of direction and intensity, for each variable contributing to GWS variation. UAV-derived vegetation indices, slope, elevation, apparent electrical conductivity (ECa), weekly or daily weather parameters, and day of the year (DOY) were tested and regressed against stem water potential (Ψstem), measured by a pressure bomb, and used as a proxy for GWS using three machine learning algorithms (elastic net, random forest regression, and support vector regression). Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis was used to assess the relationship between selected variables and Ψstem. The results indicate that the root mean square error (RMSE) of the transformed chlorophyll absorption reflectance index-based model improved from 213 to 146 kPa when DOY and elevation were included as ancillary inputs. RMSE of the excess green index-based model improved from 221 to 138 kPa when DOY, elevation, slope, ECa, and daily average windspeed were included as ancillary inputs. The support vector regression best described the relationship between Ψstem and selected predictors. This study has provided proof of the concept for developing GWS estimation models that potentially enhance the monitoring capacities of UAVs for GWS, as well as providing individual GWS mapping at the vineyard scale. This may enable growers to improve irrigation management, leading to controlled vegetative growth and optimized berry quality.