One-year case fatality rate following stroke in the Mashhad Stroke Incidence Study: a population-based study of stroke in Iran

Background In developing countries, there are few comprehensive studies of mortality following stroke. Aims and/or hypothesis We aimed to determine the one-year case fatality rate following stroke and to identify factors associated with death in a population-based stroke incidence study in Iran. Methods Six hundred eighty-four patients who had suffered a stroke between November 21, 2006, and November 20, 2007, and were recruited to the Mashhad Stroke Incidence Study were followed up at one-year. Most patients were seen in an outpatient visit. When patients had died, a verbal autopsy was conducted by telephone with the next of kin. Results A total of 226 (34.3%) patients died during the first year following stroke. The cumulative one-year case fatality rate was 30.6% following ischemic stroke and 53.0% following hemorrhagic stroke (55.8% after intracerebral hemorrhage and 35.7% after subarachnoid hemorrhage). The majority of these deaths occurred in the first 28 days after stroke (17.7% with ischemic and 43.0% with hemorrhagic stroke). Factors associated with greater mortality at one-year (excluding those who died during the first week) were hemorrhagic stroke [hazard ratio (HR) 3.99; 95% confidence interval 1.90-8.37], age (HR 1.05; 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.08), previous transient ischemic attack (HR 2.45; 95% confidence interval 1.00-5.99), and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale on admission (HR 1.14; 95% confidence interval 1.10-1.17). Conclusion Despite the younger age of stroke occurrence in Iran, the one-year case fatality rate following stroke is similar to that reported in developed countries.