Estimating diabetes prevalence in Turkey in 2025 with and without possible interventions to reduce obesity and smoking prevalence, using a modelling approach

The purpose of this study is to estimate the prevalence and the number of people with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in 2025 in Turkey and to evaluate the impact of possible policy options on T2DM prevalence. We developed a model to predict future prevalence of T2DM using trend data for adults aged 25–74 in Turkey from 1997 to 2025. The model integrates population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate the future T2DM prevalence using a Markov approach. T2DM prevalence was 7.5 % (95 % CI: 6.0–9.0 %) in 1997 increasing to 16.2 % (95 % CI: 15.5–21.1 %) in 2010. The forecasted prevalence for 2025 was 31.5 % (28.6 % in men and 35.1 % in women). If obesity prevalence declines by 10 % and smoking decreases by 20 % in 10 years from 2010, a 10 % relative reduction in diabetes prevalence (1,655,213 individuals) could be achieved by 2025. Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge, and our model predicts that its burden will increase significantly over the next two decades. Tackling obesity and other diabetes risk factors needs urgent action.