Predicting early life connectivity of Antarctic silverfish, an important forage species along the Antarctic Peninsula

The early life stages of the Antarctic silverfish (Pleuragramma antarctica), an important prey species for higher predators in the Southern Ocean ecosystem, dominate the larval fish assemblages of the Bransfield Strait, one of the most important areas for larval retention off the Antarctic Peninsula. Nevertheless, the spatial location of areas where they were spawned and the timing of larval hatching remain unknown. By linking Lagrangian particle tracking simulations with age data obtained using otolith microincrements from fish caught north of Joinville Island in a pelagic survey, we estimated the distribution of hatch dates and subsequent growth rates of silverfish reaching the Bransfield Strait, and predicted the areas where they were spawned. Larval hatching peaked during the last week of December, and the inner shelf and shelf break, east of the Larsen Ice shelf, were the dominant areas predicted to contribute to larval assemblages in the Bransfield Strait. Over simulated periods of 600–630 days, 35–40% of particles remained within the Bransfield Strait, suggesting an important source of supply to higher predators feeding off the northern Antarctic Peninsula. The daily growth rate at the mean size of 22.3 mm was 0.18 mm, corresponding to a daily change in size of approximately 0.82% standard length (SL), and large variability in growth rate suggested a wide range of environmental conditions experienced during the period of advection from the spawning areas. These results provide spatial predictions that can be tested empirically in future studies, using the simulated trajectories to inform sampling design and spatial coverage.