Influence of Key Environmental Drivers on the Performance of Sediment Diversions

A Delft3D morphodynamic model for Barataria Bay, Louisiana, USA is used to quantify a plausible range of land change in response to a proposed sediment diversion under a range of environmental drivers. To examine the influence of environmental drivers, such as Mississippi River water hydrographs, mineral and organic sediment loading, sea level rise rates, subsidence, and a projected implementation (or operation) date, 240 multi-decadal (2020–2100) numerical experiments were used. The diversion was assumed to begin operation in 2025, 2030, or 2035. The experiments revealed persistent benefits of the sediment diversion through 2100. Start data of 2025 result in a median net positive land change of 32 km2 by 2100; whereas the 90th, and 10th percentiles are 69 and 10 km2. A delay in the operation date of the diversion to 2030 or 2035 would reduce the net positive land change by approximately 15–20% and 20–30%, respectively.