Landslide motion forecasting by a dynamic visco-plastic model

To model the evolution with time of the Bindo-Cortenova translational landslide (Italian Prealps, Lombardy, Italy), a 1D pseudo-dynamic visco-plastic approach, based on Perzyna's theory, has been conceived. The viscous nucleus has been assumed to be bilinear: in one case, irreversible deformations develop uniquely for positive yield function values; in a more general case, visco-plastic deformations develop even for negative values. The model has been calibrated and subsequently validated on a long temporal series of monitoring data and it seems quite reliable in simulating the in situ data. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013.