Failure to meet the reserve price: the impact on returns to art

This article presents an empirical study of paintings that have failed to meet their reserve price at auction. In the art trade, it is often claimed that when an advertised item goes unsold at auction, it will sell for less in the future. We have constructed a new dataset specifically for the purpose of testing this proposition. To preview our results, we find that paintings which come to auction and failed return significantly less when they are eventually sold than those paintings that have not been advertised at auction between sales. These lower returns may occur because of common value effects, idiosyncratic downward trends in tastes, or changes in the seller’s reserve price.