Combined use of satellite image analysis, land-use statistics, and land-use-specific export coefficients to predict nutrients in drained peatland catchment

Highlights • Nutrient and SS estimations were predicted by comparing different approaches. • Peatland drainage strongly affected TN, TP, and SS loads and concentrations. • Uncertainty in estimates captured 29–90% of measured TN, TP, and SS values. • The uncertainty in export coefficients decreased with catchment size. Maintaining and improving surface water quality requires knowledge of nutrient and sediment loads due to past and future land-use practices, but historical data on land cover and its changes are often lacking. In this study, we tested whether land-use-specific export coefficients can be used together with satellite images (Landsat) and/or regional land-use statistics to estimate riverine nutrient loads and concentrations of total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and suspended solids (SS). The study area, Simojoki (3160 km2) in northern Finland, has been intensively drained for peatland forestry since the 1960s. We used different approaches at multiple sub-catchment scales to simulate TN, TP, and SS export in the Simojoki catchment. The uncertainty in estimates based on specific export coefficients was quantified based on historical land-use changes (derived from Landsat data), and an uncertainty boundary was established for each land-use. The uncertainty boundary captured at least 60% of measured values of TN, TP, and SS loads or concentrations. However, the uncertainty in estimates compared with measured values ranged from 7% to 20% for TN, 0% to 18% for TP, and 13% to 43% for SS for different catchments. Some discrepancy between predicted and measured loads and concentrations was expected, as the method did not account for inter-annual variability in hydrological conditions or river processes. However, combining historical land-use change estimates with simple export coefficients can be a practical approach for evaluating the influence on water quality of historical land-use changes such as peatland drainage for forest establishment.