Rethinking modeling Alzheimer's disease progression from a multi-task learning perspective with deep recurrent neural network

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a severe neurodegenerative disorder that usually starts slowly and progressively worsens. Predicting the progression of Alzheimer's disease with longitudinal analysis on the time series data has recently received increasing attention. However, training an accurate progression model for brain network faces two major challenges: missing features, and the small sample size during the follow-up study. According to our analysis on the AD progression task, we thoroughly analyze the correlation among the multiple predictive tasks of AD progression at multiple time points. Thus, we propose a multi-task learning framework that can adaptively impute missing values and predict future progression over time from a subject's historical measurements. Progression is measured in terms of MRI volumetric measurements, trajectories of a cognitive score and clinical status. To this end, we propose a new perspective of predicting the AD progression with a multi-task learning paradigm. In our multi-task learning paradigm, we hypothesize that the inherent correlations exist among: (i). the prediction tasks of clinical diagnosis, cognition and ventricular volume at each time point; (ii). the tasks of imputation and prediction; and (iii). the prediction tasks at multiple future time points. According to our findings of the task correlation, we develop an end-to-end deep multi-task learning method to jointly improve the performance of assigning missing value and prediction. We design a balanced multi-task dynamic weight optimization. With in-depth analysis and empirical evidence on Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), we show the benefits and flexibility of the proposed multi-task learning model, especially for the prediction at the M60 time point. The proposed approach achieves 5.6%, 5.7%, 4.0% and 11.8% improvement with respect to mAUC, BCA and MAE (ADAS-Cog13 and Ventricles), respectively.