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Carbon cycle uncertainty in the Alaskan Arctic
- Source :
- Biogeosciences, Biogeosciences, 2014, 11 (15), pp.4271-4288. ⟨10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014⟩, BIOGEOSCIENCES, Biogeosciences, European Geosciences Union, 2014, 11 (15), pp.4271-4288. ⟨10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014⟩, Biogeosciences, Vol 11, Iss 15, Pp 4271-4288 (2014)
- Publication Year :
- 2014
-
Abstract
- Climate change is leading to a disproportionately large warming in the high northern latitudes, but the magnitude and sign of the future carbon balance of the Arctic are highly uncertain. Using 40 terrestrial biosphere models for the Alaskan Arctic from four recent model intercomparison projects – NACP (North American Carbon Program) site and regional syntheses, TRENDY (Trends in net land atmosphere carbon exchanges), and WETCHIMP (Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project) – we provide a baseline of terrestrial carbon cycle uncertainty, defined as the multi-model standard deviation (σ) for each quantity that follows. Mean annual absolute uncertainty was largest for soil carbon (14.0 ± 9.2 kg C m−2), then gross primary production (GPP) (0.22 ± 0.50 kg C m−2 yr−1), ecosystem respiration (Re) (0.23 ± 0.38 kg C m−2 yr−1), net primary production (NPP) (0.14 ± 0.33 kg C m−2 yr−1), autotrophic respiration (Ra) (0.09 ± 0.20 kg C m−2 yr−1), heterotrophic respiration (Rh) (0.14 ± 0.20 kg C m−2 yr−1), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) (−0.01 ± 0.19 kg C m−2 yr−1), and CH4 flux (2.52 ± 4.02 g CH4 m−2 yr−1). There were no consistent spatial patterns in the larger Alaskan Arctic and boreal regional carbon stocks and fluxes, with some models showing NEE for Alaska as a strong carbon sink, others as a strong carbon source, while still others as carbon neutral. Finally, AmeriFlux data are used at two sites in the Alaskan Arctic to evaluate the regional patterns; observed seasonal NEE was captured within multi-model uncertainty. This assessment of carbon cycle uncertainties may be used as a baseline for the improvement of experimental and modeling activities, as well as a reference for future trajectories in carbon cycling with climate change in the Alaskan Arctic and larger boreal region.
- Subjects :
- 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
WETLAND EXTENT
lcsh:Life
chemistry.chemical_element
Climate change
Atmospheric sciences
01 natural sciences
GLOBAL VEGETATION MODEL
Atmospheric Sciences
ATMOSPHERIC INVERSIONS
Carbon cycle
03 medical and health sciences
Meteorology and Climatology
lcsh:QH540-549.5
METHANE EMISSIONS
[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment
TERRESTRIAL BIOSPHERE
Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Earth-Surface Processes
030304 developmental biology
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere
0303 health sciences
CLIMATE-CHANGE
lcsh:QE1-996.5
Primary production
Carbon sink
Soil carbon
15. Life on land
PERMAFROST CARBON
lcsh:Geology
lcsh:QH501-531
TUNDRA ECOSYSTEMS
Arctic
chemistry
COMPARISON PROJECT WETCHIMP
13. Climate action
Earth and Environmental Sciences
Climatology
Earth Sciences
Environmental science
lcsh:Ecology
Hydrology
PRESENT STATE
Ecosystem respiration
Carbon
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 17264189 and 17264170
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Biogeosciences, Biogeosciences, 2014, 11 (15), pp.4271-4288. ⟨10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014⟩, BIOGEOSCIENCES, Biogeosciences, European Geosciences Union, 2014, 11 (15), pp.4271-4288. ⟨10.5194/bg-11-4271-2014⟩, Biogeosciences, Vol 11, Iss 15, Pp 4271-4288 (2014)
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....79da366d98b15b7ec7b6215058358d74