Global sensitivity analysis to optimize basin-scale conductive model calibration: A case study from the Upper Rhine Graben

Calibrating geothermal simulations is a critical step, both in scientific and industrial contexts, with suitable model parameterizations being optimized to reduce discrepancies between simulated and measured temperatures. Here we present a methodology to identify model errors in the calibration and compensate for measurement sparsity. With an application to the Upper Rhine Graben, we demonstrate the essential need for global sensitivity studies to robustly calibrate geothermal models, showing that local studies overestimate the influence of some parameters. We ensure the feasibility of the study through a physics-based machine learning approach (reduced basis method), reducing computation time by several orders of magnitude.