Longitudinal latent class analysis of tobacco use and correlates among young adults over a 10-year period

INTRODUCTION: We assessed patterns and correlates, including demographic characteristics, psychological factors, and social role transitions, of young adults’ tobacco use over time. METHODS: In the fall of 2010, we recruited a cohort of 3,146 students from 11 colleges in North Carolina and Virginia. Participants completed baseline and at least two survey waves between 2010 and 2019. RESULTS: The sample was 49.8% female, 15.7% non-white, and 6.6% Hispanic. Longitudinal latent class analysis revealed a five-class model with distinct patterns and correlates of tobacco use. Limited Use (52.6% of sample) had minimal use. College-Limited Combustible Tobacco Users (16.8%) had moderate probability of cigarette, cigar, and waterpipe smoking, which decreased to no use post-college. Experimental Users (10.9%) had low probability of use that continued post-college. College Polytobacco with Continued Cigarette and E-Cigarette Users (14.0%) had high probability of use of cigarette smoking and increasing probability of e-cigarette, both of which continued post-college. Sustained Polytobacco Users (5.7%) had moderate probability of use of tobacco products across all waves. CONCLUSIONS: Patterns of tobacco use varied considerably. In most classes, tobacco use was highest during freshman year and in three classes, use continued post-college. Prevention activities should focus on first-year students and target those at risk for post-college tobacco use.