PESO: a modelling framework to help improve management strategies for epidemics - application to sharka

BGPI: équipe 6Paper based on work presented at the Joint EFSA-EPPO Workshop: Modelling in Plant Health – how can models support risk assessment of plant pests and decision-making? 12th–14th December 2016, Parma, Italy; International audience; The optimization of management strategies for plant diseases is a difficult task because of the complexity and variability of epidemic dynamics. Thanks to their ability to numerically simulate many scenarios, models can be used to estimate epidemiological parameters, assess the effectiveness of different management strategies and optimize them. This article presents the PESO (parameter estimation–simulation–optimization) modelling framework to help improve plant disease management strategies. This framework is based on (i) the characterization of the epidemic dynamics to estimate key epidemiological parameters, (ii) the use of spatially explicit models to simulate epidemic dynamics and disease management, and (iii) the use of numerical optimization methods to identify better management strategies. This approach is generic and can be applied to many diseases. The work presented here focuses on sharka (caused by Plum pox virus), which has a worldwide impact on the Prunus industry, and is associated with huge disease management costs in many countries, especially in France.