Clinical and Demographic Characteristics Associated With Prostate Cancer Progression in Patients on Active Surveillance

Active surveillance is an established management option for patients with low risk prostate cancer. However, little is known about the characteristics associated with the increased probability of progression in patients on active surveillance. We analyzed our active surveillance cohort in search of such features.A total of 272 men with prostate cancer have enrolled in our active surveillance program since 1994, of whom 249 underwent at least 1 surveillance biopsy and were included in analysis. Our active surveillance inclusion criteria are biopsy Gleason grade less than 7, 2 or fewer positive biopsy cores, 20% or less tumor in any core and clinical stage T1-T2a. Changes in any of these parameters during followup that went beyond these limits were considered progression. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis was done to determine patient characteristics associated with an increased risk of progression.A total of 64 patients (26%) showed progression at a median 2.9-year followup on a mean of 2.3 surveillance biopsies. The progression risk was significantly increased in black patients (adjusted HR 3.87-4.12), and in men with a smaller prostate and higher prostate specific antigen density. The latter 2 variables had no specific cutoff for an association with progression.Black men with low risk prostate cancer should be advised that the risk of progression on active surveillance may be higher than that in the available literature. Integral prognostic tools incorporating race and prostate specific antigen density may be useful to accurately assess the individual risk of progression in patients on active surveillance.