How many trafficked people are there in Greater New Orleans? Lessons in measurement

Researchers in the field of modern slavery and human trafficking have faced significant challenges in estimating the prevalence of victimization since the emergence of the field in the 1990s. 1 Human trafficking is a hidden crime, which for several reasons is not amenable to the most widely applied approaches to measuring crime and victimization, especially in wealthy nations such as the U.S. where trafficking is less prevalent and more hidden. Recent studies in U.S. cities or regions have tended to target specific populations with perceived vulnerabilities to trafficking, including homeless youth, 2 youth engaged in trading sex, 3 youth involved in the child welfare system, 4 undocumented laborers, 5 sexual minorities, 6 or minor girls. 7 Researchers typically do not venture estimates of prevalence from these studies, and are careful to note that any estimates that might be drawn from those studies are clearly limited to those particular populations and cannot be extrapolated to determine prevalence estimates for entire communities or the nation. Nonetheless, in the absence of more accurate estimates, journalists and scholars often inappropriately employ these limited findings as prevalence estimates. Without knowing the prevalence of human trafficking, it is difficult to frame appropriate policies or effectively allocate resources. This study therefore set out to address these research challenges by employing Multiple Systems Estimation (MSE), a statistical model that builds from lists of known cases to estimate the number not known, with the ultimate goal of estimating the total number of enslaved or trafficked persons in a particular geographical location. The research detailed in this essay provides an estimate, derived from MSE analysis, that reflects a first attempt at utilizing local data to determine the prevalence of trafficking in an American city-in this case, in the New Orleans metropolitan area. Additionally, it reports on the factors that aided and impeded an accurate and reliable MSE estimation of trafficking in New Orleans, such as definitional variance and the likelihood of political and cultural dynamics affecting the reporting of trafficking crime and victimization by different types of organizations. Based on this initial foray into employing MSE at a regional level in the United States, we provide some recommendations for data collection