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Soil erosion in future scenario using CMIP5 models and earth observation datasets
- Source :
- Maurya, S, Srivastava, P K, Yaduvanshi, A, Anand, A, Petropoulos, G, Zhuo, L & Mall, R K 2021, ' Soil erosion in future scenario using CMIP5 models and earth observation datasets ', Journal of Hydrology, vol. 594, 125851 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125851
- Publication Year :
- 2021
- Publisher :
- Elsevier, 2021.
-
Abstract
- Rainfall and land use/land cover changes are significant factors that impact the soil erosion processes. Therefore, the present study aims to investigate the impact of rainfall and land use/land cover changes in the current and future scenarios to deduce the soil erosion losses using the state-of-the-art Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). In this study, we evaluated the long-term changes (period 1981–2040) in the land use/land cover and rainfall through the statistical measures and used subsequently in the soil erosion loss prediction. The future land use/land cover changes are produced using the Cellular Automata Markov Chain model (CA-Markov) simulation using multi-temporal Landsat datasets, while long term rainfall data was obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project v5 (CMIP5) and Indian Meteorological Department. In total seven CMIP5 model projections viz Ensemble mean, MRI-CGCM3, INMCM4, canESM2, MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL-ESM2M and GFDL-CM3 of rainfall were used. The future projections (2011–2040) of soil erosion losses were then made after calibrating the soil erosion model on the historic datasets. The applicability of the proposed method has been tested over the Mahi River Basin (MRB), a region of key environmental significance in India. The finding showed that the rainfall-runoff erosivity gradually decreases from 475.18 MJ mm/h/y (1981–1990) to 425.72 MJ mm/h/y (1991–2000). A value of 428.53 MJ mm/h/y was obtained in 2001–2010, while a significantly high values 661.47 MJ mm/h/y has been reported for the 2011–2040 in the ensemble model mean output of CMIP5. The combined results of rainfall and land use/land cover changes reveal that the soil erosion loss occurred during 1981–1990 was 55.23 t/ha/y (1981–1990), which is gradually increased to 56.78 t/ha/y in 1991–2000 and 57.35 t/ha/y in 2000–2010. The projected results showed that it would increase to 71.46 t/h/y in 2011–2040. The outcome of this study can be used to provide reasonable assistance in identifying suitable conservation practices in the MRB.
- Subjects :
- Hydrology
Earth observation
Coupled model intercomparison project
geography
geography.geographical_feature_category
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Ensemble forecasting
Land use
0207 environmental engineering
Drainage basin
CMIP5 model
CA-Markov
02 engineering and technology
Land cover
Remote sensing
GIS
01 natural sciences
Current (stream)
Universal Soil Loss Equation
Soil erosion
Environmental science
Mahi River Basin
020701 environmental engineering
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Water Science and Technology
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00221694
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Maurya, S, Srivastava, P K, Yaduvanshi, A, Anand, A, Petropoulos, G, Zhuo, L & Mall, R K 2021, ' Soil erosion in future scenario using CMIP5 models and earth observation datasets ', Journal of Hydrology, vol. 594, 125851 . https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125851
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....6f42f02ecf78267b39a1c1c6a630bea7