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Risk Assessment and Decision-Making Based on Mean-CVaR-Entropy for Flood Control Operation of Large Scale Reservoirs
- Source :
- Water, Volume 11, Issue 4, Water, Vol 11, Iss 4, p 649 (2019)
- Publication Year :
- 2019
- Publisher :
- Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, 2019.
-
Abstract
- The risk inevitably exists in the process of flood control operation and decision-making of reservoir group, due to the hydrologic and hydraulic uncertain factors. In this study different stochastic simulation methods were applied to simulate these uncertainties in multi-reservoir flood control operation, and the risk caused by different uncertainties was evaluated from the mean value, extreme value and discrete degree of reservoir occupied storage capacity under uncertain conditions. In order to solve the conflict between risk assessment indexes and evaluate the comprehensive risk of different reservoirs in flood control operation schemes, the subjective weight and objective weight were used to construct the comprehensive risk assessment index, and the improved Mahalanobis distance TOPSIS method was used to select the optimal flood control operation scheme. The proposed method was applied to the flood control operation system in the mainstream and its tributaries of upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, and 14 cascade reservoirs were selected as a case study. The results indicate that proposed method can evaluate the risk of multi-reservoir flood control operation from all perspectives and provide a new method for multi-criteria decision-making of reservoir flood control operation, and it breaks the limitation of the traditional risk analysis method which only evaluated by risk rate and cannot evaluate the risk of the multi-reservoir flood control operation system.
- Subjects :
- lcsh:Hydraulic engineering
Operations research
Entropy
Geography, Planning and Development
Aquatic Science
Biochemistry
Multi-criteria decision making
lcsh:Water supply for domestic and industrial purposes
lcsh:TC1-978
conditional value at risk (CVaR)
Stochastic simulation
Entropy (information theory)
Extreme value theory
Water Science and Technology
lcsh:TD201-500
Mahalanobis distance
CVAR
fungi
food and beverages
TOPSIS
Multi-reservoir flood control operation
humanities
Flood control
multiple uncertainties
Environmental science
Risk assessment
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 20734441
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Water
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....6eefde03469ec6da95055df6d4eba497
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.3390/w11040649