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Optimal Sampling Strategies for Detecting Zoonotic Disease Epidemics
- Source :
- PLoS Computational Biology, PLoS Computational Biology, Vol 10, Iss 6, p e1003668 (2014)
- Publication Year :
- 2014
- Publisher :
- Public Library of Science, 2014.
-
Abstract
- The early detection of disease epidemics reduces the chance of successful introductions into new locales, minimizes the number of infections, and reduces the financial impact. We develop a framework to determine the optimal sampling strategy for disease detection in zoonotic host-vector epidemiological systems when a disease goes from below detectable levels to an epidemic. We find that if the time of disease introduction is known then the optimal sampling strategy can switch abruptly between sampling only from the vector population to sampling only from the host population. We also construct time-independent optimal sampling strategies when conducting periodic sampling that can involve sampling both the host and the vector populations simultaneously. Both time-dependent and -independent solutions can be useful for sampling design, depending on whether the time of introduction of the disease is known or not. We illustrate the approach with West Nile virus, a globally-spreading zoonotic arbovirus. Though our analytical results are based on a linearization of the dynamical systems, the sampling rules appear robust over a wide range of parameter space when compared to nonlinear simulation models. Our results suggest some simple rules that can be used by practitioners when developing surveillance programs. These rules require knowledge of transition rates between epidemiological compartments, which population was initially infected, and of the cost per sample for serological tests.<br />Author Summary Outbreaks of zoonoses can have large costs to society through public health and agricultural impacts. Because many zoonoses co-occur in multiple animal populations simultaneously, detection of zoonotic outbreaks can be especially difficult. We evaluated how to design sampling strategies for the early detection of disease outbreaks of vector-borne diseases. We built a framework to integrate epidemiological dynamical models with a sampling process that accounts for budgetary constraints, such as those faced by many management agencies. We illustrate our approach using West Nile virus, a globally-spreading zoonotic arbovirus that has significantly affected North American bird populations. Our results suggest that simple formulas can often make robust predictions about the proper sampling procedure, though we also illustrate how computational methods can be used to extend our framework to more realistic modeling scenarios when these simple predictions break down.
- Subjects :
- Epidemiology
Population Modeling
Disease Vectors
Bioinformatics
Systems Science
Zoonoses
Sampling design
Statistics
Medicine and Health Sciences
lcsh:QH301-705.5
education.field_of_study
Optimal sampling
Ecology
Applied Mathematics
Sampling (statistics)
Infectious Diseases
Computational Theory and Mathematics
Veterinary Diseases
Modeling and Simulation
Population Surveillance
Physical Sciences
West Nile virus
Statistics (Mathematics)
Research Article
Computer and Information Sciences
Dynamical systems theory
Population
Sample (statistics)
Biology
Models, Biological
Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Veterinary Epidemiology
Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience
Decision Theory
Linearization
Genetics
Animals
Humans
education
Epidemics
Molecular Biology
Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Models, Statistical
Biology and Life Sciences
Computational Biology
lcsh:Biology (General)
Nonlinear Dynamics
Vector (epidemiology)
Veterinary Science
Infectious Disease Modeling
Mathematics
West Nile Fever
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 15537358 and 1553734X
- Volume :
- 10
- Issue :
- 6
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- PLoS Computational Biology
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....6d8194da15459649703d7f39ddf7989b