Probabilistic and sensitivity analysis of analytical models of corrosion onset for reinforced concrete structures

International audience; Chloride ingress and carbonation are the main factors leading to corrosion initiation of reinforced concrete (RC) structures. Lifetime assessment and maintenance optimization of these deteriorating structures has been based for several practical applications on analytical predictive models. The literature review shows that there are numerous analytical models of chloride ingress and carbonation. It was also found that comprehensive lifetime assessment requires that the selected models be able to propagate uncertainties in a correct manner. Thus, this paper proposes a methodology for probabilistic sensitivity analysis of analytical models for chloride ingress and carbonation. Given that di↵erent parameter notations were found for each model, a homogenization of notations and generic forms are first proposed. The sensitivity analysis is based on the following indicators: elasticity coecient, Pearson coecient, bias of the mean and standard deviation of the response of the model. The results highlighted which parameters are influential for each model by considering three concrete types. Overall results indicated a higher e↵ect of the non-linearity of the models on the sensitivity indicators. It was found that the level of influence of each parameter depends also on the concrete type and the duration of the exposure to chlorides or carbon dioxide.