The future burden of lung cancer attributable to current modifiable behaviours: a pooled study of seven Australian cohorts

Background Knowledge of preventable disease and differences in disease burden can inform public health action to improve health and health equity. We quantified the future lung cancer burden preventable by behavioural modifications across Australia. Methods We pooled seven Australian cohort studies (n = 367 058) and linked them to national registries to identify lung cancers and deaths. We estimated population attributable fractions and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for modifiable risk factors, using risk estimates from the cohort data and risk factor exposure distribution from contemporary national health surveys. Results During the first 10-year follow-up, there were 2025 incident lung cancers and 20 349 deaths. Stopping current smoking could prevent 53.7% (95% CI, 50.0–57.2%) of lung cancers over 40 years and 18.3% (11.0–25.1%) in 10 years. The smoking-attributable burden is highest in males, those who smoke